Firstly, in The Human Tide, Paul Moreland (London School of Economics PhD) explains the contributory, not exclusive, role of demography in world affairs. He reviews the historical consequences that have occurred when child births, child mortality and migrations dramatically change a nation’s population size and mix focusing on economic prosperity, military campaigns and societal peace aspects. He then projects how these factors may affect future history particularly noting that Nigeria is the next nation projected to house one billion inhabitants. On a lesser note, one can also learn how actuaries calculate life expectancy which has widespread use in developing retirement plans.
Secondly, in a related text, The Great Demographic Reversal, Charles Goodhart (London school of Economics) and Manoj Pradhan (George Washington University PhD) offer a view that the demographic global economic conditions of the last thirty years of labor surplus, low inflation and increased globalization primarily caused by China’s entry into the world economy will be reversed. The impetus for same will be population ageing in the world’s most prosperous nations together with a backlash against globalization from mainly the portions of the populations outside of China that benefited least from the manufacturing outsourcing that occurred. Government debt that appeared innocuous given the low interest rates of that period will now become a greater burden just as increased fiscal demands will be on the ascent. The positive side, if their thesis holds, is that inequality will lessen while the negatives are increased inflation amid international tensions.
Thirdly, in Radical Uncertainty, John Kay (Oxford University Fellow) and Mervyn King (former governor of the Bank of England) take issue with the misuse of probability modeling in human decision making. In our effort to apply scientific rigor to the complexity of everyday decisions, we have overstated its value in many areas of human affairs particularly when Black Swans such as Covid-19 appear. In fact, as noted by the authors, most human decisions require a level of creativity not present in mathematical models.
Lastly, if you have ever wondered why some of our brightest young college graduates seem to have identical one-sided views on most matters, The Breakdown of Higher Education by John Ellis (Professor Emeritus of UC Santa Cruz) sheds light on the subject. Professor Ellis explains how most college faculties have become incubators of a particular world-view as opposed to truth seekers, details the harm this has caused and offers remedies to address the situation and reorient campuses to their original mission. Since K-12 educators receive their instruction in these institutions, it further amplifies the importance of redressing this condition.
It is noteworthy that the first two books complement one another by examining the role that population plays in determining events while the last two books complement one another by examining how the intellectual framework for making decisions influences the interpretation and actions proposed relative to those same events.